Strait of Hormuz: Low Navigation Levels
Iran announced a “blockade” of the strait and intercepted a US military unmanned submersible; however, the US stated that the strait remains navigable under escort (approximately 40 million barrels over 48 hours). Actual navigation is only about half of pre-war levels, with tankers generally turning off their AIS or conducting ship-to-ship transfers (transporting approximately 5-8 million barrels per day covertly).
Bab el-Mandeb Strait / Red Sea: Houthi Control
Houthi rebels have previously occupied Perim Island and the port of Mocha, effectively controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; this week, they launched ballistic missiles toward the Saudi interior. The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (capacity of about 4 million barrels per day) remains damaged and out of service, and the strategic alternative route bypassing Hormuz is still unavailable.
Suez Canal: Resumption of Operations Progressing
Shipping companies have shifted from single-vessel trial runs to resuming operations by route and in stages: COSCO and OOCL have resumed five Asia-Europe-Mediterranean routes through the Suez Canal since mid-September; Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have increased to six Suez routes, while capacity rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope has dropped to a two-year low. However, security risks in the Red Sea remain high, and shipping companies generally maintain contingency plans for rerouting. Full resumption of operations is expected to be delayed until the first half of 2027.
Iran demands the unfreezing of approximately $24 billion in frozen assets, the resumption of oil sales, and the cessation of military operations; the US has refused, and nuclear verification negotiations have stalled. If the US and Iran maintain a state of “neither war nor peace,” low navigation levels in the strait and high risk premiums may become the new normal.