Strait of Hormuz
- Not completely blocked but traffic is extremely low: Only 17 cargo ships passed through last weekend (37 the previous weekend), compared to a pre-war daily average of about 125; Kpler statistics show 26–35 ships per day this week, lower than the 35–40 ships per day over the previous eight weeks.
- Shipping costs soaring: About 15% of the global VLCC fleet (approx. 140 out of 925 ships) is stranded near the Gulf of Oman conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers; STS transshipment volume in the Gulf of Oman reached about 2.5 million barrels per day in September (up from 1.4 million barrels in August).
Bab el-Mandeb Strait / Red Sea
- Houthi forces have controlled the entire west coast of Yemen, as well as the ports of Mocha, Perim Island, and the Hanish Islands, effectively controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; traffic once plummeted to 6 ships on 9/10 (down from 30 the previous day).
- UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) threat levels: “Severe” for the Strait of Hormuz, and “High” for the Gulf of Aden / Bab el-Mandeb Strait – Southern Red Sea.
Suez Canal (Resumption of services accelerating)
- On 9/16, the 24,188 TEU “Orient Portugal” of Orient Overseas sailed south through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea for the first time since 2023; COSCO, CMA CGM, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have all resumed partial transit; container ship throughput for the first 8 months reached 72.1 million gross tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%. The resumption rate for Europe-to-Asia voyages has risen to 25%–47%, while Asia-to-Europe remains at only 13%–25%; the resurgence of security risks in the Red Sea may impact the progress of service resumption.